TLKM

TLKM critical level is 8500 to confirm its bullishness. Let's see some more days to see the trend.

Regards,

JNS

~We do our best and GOD will do the rest~

MEDC

MEDC has good signals, MACD golden cross and almost cross center-line, stochastic is uptrend and ready to cross center-line also. I think it will easily break 3150 and also downtrend line to reach its short-term target at 3450. CL if break uptrend line or if fall below 3025.

Regards,

JNS

~We do our best and GOD will do the rest~

TRUB - as requested

(daily chart)

(weekly chart)

In weekly chart, we can see TRUB has not yet break the downtrend line. But, there is a buy signal at the last 2 candle and the stochastic is oversold.

In daily chart, TRUB has break short term downtrend line at the last 5 candle, but still can't break resistance level at 88. If it can break-up 88, it's possible TRUB to break long term downtrend line. Stochastic is overbought. I think, TRUB is going down to area 71-79. Best entry is near 71, but CL if break 65.

Regards,

JNS

~We do our best and GOD will do the rest~

ASRI

ASRI weekly form a symetrical triangle, hope it would not break down as the confirmation.

Regards,

JNS

~We do our best and GOD will do the rest~

ELSA

ELSA after break its downtrend line and strong resistance (320 and 335), it runaway very fast to its next resistance 370-390. Today's candle, many traders take profit and push the price to 350. My point of view, we can accumulate when the price retrace to 320-335, with cut loss level if break and close below 320. Target price would be 460.

Regards,

JNS

~We do our best and GOD will do the rest~

BTEK

BTEK is make pennant but already break-down with support 500-530. MACD and stochastic is still downtrend.

The scenario are as follow:

1. Spec buy around 500-530, but if fall below 500, CUT LOSS!!

2. If break and close above 610, we can buy with target 700, and if break again, sky is the limit.

I'll update the chart again for the next movement.

Regards,

JNS

~We do our best and GOD will do the rest~

DOID

DOID is very interesting, if break 900 as its important level, the potential upside is very wide with target 1060-1090. Today's candle has break but fail to close above 900. So, we have to wait until candle confirm closed above 900. Just wait and see.

Regards,

JNS

~We do our best and GOD will do the rest~

KARK

KARK seems trying to make the handle of "CUP & HANDLE" pattern, but in my opinion, it should break 99 (strong resistance). BUY 1 tick above at 100, and ride it until the 108-112 (next resistance. Let's see if it could happen or not. I'll update later if the scenario handle is happen.

Regards,

JNS

~We do our best and GOD will do the rest~

MEDC

MACD MEDC is almost golden cross, Stochastic uptrend, but it can't close above its strong resistance at 3150, although high today reached 3225. Why? Most of all stocks in JKSE fall around 3:00 pm, because of negative sentiment from Europe which opened minus almost 1%. So, let's see tomorrow, can MEDC break 3150 and reach its near target at 3450.

Regards,

JNS

~We do our best and GOD will do the rest~

ITMG

ITMG will pay interim dividen Rp795,-/share, cum date at 28 Sept 2010. Yesterday's candle break-up triangle, followed by today's candle break resistance gap at 39,100. Near potential target 40,450.

Regards,

JNS

~We do our best and GOD will do the rest~

ASRI

ASRI looks trying to reach 205-210 again, MACD cross centreline and stochastic in overbought area, support I = 195, support II = 191.

Regards,

JNS

~We do our best and GOD will do the rest~

INCO

Here are the map for INCO, it has gap at 4350-4400 and at 4775-4825. Volume today is very high. Enter if break 4525 or when pullback to close the gap, with first target 4825 and next target 5200. CL if close below 4300.

Regards,

JNS

~We do our best and GOD will do the rest~

AKRA

AKRA moved as expected to the first target. We'll see if it will retrace or go forward to next target.

Regards,

JNS

~We do our best and GOD will do the rest~

LSIP

LSIP break up pennant, with target 9950 - 10200. CL if close below 9600.

Regards,

JNS

~We do our best and GOD will do the rest~

AKRA

AKRA has break downtrend line and form uptrend channel, plus MACD uptick trying to cross signal, stochastic cross center line.

BUY with stop-loss = 1270 and 1st target = 1400, next target = 1550.

Regards,

JNS

~We do our best and GOD will do the rest~

BNPP Spotlight on Indonesia - 03 September 2010

Macro and Other News

Bank Indonesia — to announce new ruling on reserve requirement.

Bank Indonesia will have their monthly meeting today in which they will decide on:

1. Benchmark BI rate, which is expected to remain unchanged at 6.5%.
2. New ruling on primary reserve requirement on Rupiah deposits. Currently the primary rr is set at 5% that is placed in Bank Indonesia, earning small interest. In addition there is 2.5% secondary reserve requirement, which can be placed in government papers or SBI, earning around 6.5% currently.

The new ruling will set the primary rr based on the bank's LDR and is aimed to ask banks to be more active in lending. The central bank has been indicating that LDR of 78-102% will be the benchmark in which banks with LDR of <78%>102% LDR.

The industry LDR is now at 77% but larger banks tend to have lower LDR, not because of their slow loan growth but because of deposits keep coming to them such as in BCA and Mandiri.

A similar ruling was implemented during 2005 until late 2008 when rr was calculated based on a bank's total deposits and LDR level. Although there is some impact on declining interest income for banks with low LDR, we believe this will not be that significant (roughly 1% earning reduction only. We thus maintain our positive view on the banks with top picks on BBNI IJ (TP IDR3,800) and Bank Danamon (TP IDR6,300).

Corporate-related
§ Antimonopoly Commission Objects to Unilever Takeover of Sara Lee Body Care (Jakarta Globe) KPPU said it had rejected Unilever Indonesia’s proposed acquisition of Sara Lee Body Care Indonesia during an initial assessment after determining that it would lead to market domination in two product categories (market share of >50% in men’s hair cream and deodorant). However, KPPU spokesperson said this did not mean the KPPU would necessarily reject the merger, because a more thorough study will be conducted before the final verdict. Franky, corporate secretary for Unilever Indonesia, denied that the merged company would capture >50% of the market for men’s hair cream and deodorant, and said he was confident the merger would be approved during the second assessment.

§ Garuda Taps UBS, Citigroup as IPO Underwriters (Wall Street Journal) Airline company PT Garuda Indonesia has appointed UBS and Citigroup as int’l underwriters for its IPO, scheduled for later this year, a company executive said Thursday. "We have appointed both of them. We aim to raise US$300m from the public offering," President Director Emirsyah Satar said. Mr. Satar said Garuda plans to showcase its offering internationally in Nov. Garuda has previously appointed Bahana Securities, Danareksa Sekuritas and Mandiri Sekuritas to act as local underwriters.

§ Harum Energy targets to tap Rp4t from IPO (Investor Daily) Harum Energy targets to tap Rp3.25-4.09t from IPO. The company will sell 24.07% (650k shr) of its stake at Rp5,000-6,300/shr, translating into the expected PER of 7-9x in 2011, Ciptadana director said.

§ Adaro Energy to acquire Bhakti Energi (Investor Daily) Adaro plans to acquire Bhakti Energi, owned by one of Adaro’s founder TP Rachmat. There are no details yet on the value of acquisition but it’s been reported Adaro will use its internal cash to finance its planned acquisition. Currently Bhakti Energi owns four coal mines in East Kalimantan with total reserve of 5.6b metric. The company targets to produce about 700k tonnes of coal this year.

§ Thai Coal Giant Banpu Says It’s Still Committed to ITM Despite Stake Sale (Jakarta Globe) Banpu said it was still committed to a long-term investment in Indonesian unit Indo Tambangraya Megah after selling an 8.7% stake for US$395m. A subsidiary, Banpu Minerals, sold the stake to institutional investors through a market placement on Thursday. The transaction was expected to be completed on Tuesday. 10% of the shares were offered to Indonesian investors while the rest went to int’l investors, according to a source from an Indonesian brokerage with direct knowledge of the deal.

§ Fast-Food Giant Cuts Ties With Sinar Mas (Jakarta Globe) US fast food giant Burger King said that it would no longer buy palm oil from Sinar Mas or its subsidiaries, after Greenpeace’s successful campaign against the Indonesian group’s land-clearing practices. Burger King said a recent independent audit of Sinar Mas palm oil unit Smart’s land-clearing practices — commissioned by Sinar Mas in response to the Greenpeace allegations — revealed activities “inconsistent with our corporate responsibility commitments”.

§ Alcatel-Lucent to help Telkom cope with traffic (Jakarta Globe) Alcatel-Lucent said it had been contracted to upgrade Telkom’s network backbone to accommodate increasing traffic and simplify its system while reducing costs. Alcatel said the project would also address operational and power consumption challenges resulting from traffic growth. Telkom said its number of fixed broadband subscribers expanded by 79%y-y in the 1Q, while mobile broadband users soared 607%.

§ GM Mulls Indonesian Plant (Jakarta Globe) General Motors, the largest US automaker, may spend US$150m to restart a plant in Indonesia that has been closed for about five years, said Tim Lee, the company’s president for int’l operations. A decision on whether to reopen the factory, which could initially produce 50k vehicles a year, will be made within 90 days, Lee said on Thursday during a press briefing in Bangkok. The plant would make multipurpose vehicles, he said.



Indonesia Research Team:
- Elvira Tjandrawinata 62-21-2358 4948 elvira.tjandrawinata@asia.bnpparibas.com
Automotive/Mining non Coal/Consumers/ Heavy Equipment

- Tjandra Lienandjaja 62-21-2358 4935 tjandra.lienandjaja@asia.bnpparibas.com
Financials/ Property

- Helmy Kristanto 62-21-2358 4939 helmy.kristanto@asia.bnpparibas.com
Plantation/ Cement/Oil & Gas/ Pharmaceuticals

- FOONG Choong Chen 603 2050 9938 choongchen.foong@asia.bnpparibas.com
Telecommunication

ASRI

ASRI break resistance 190, stochastic buy signal.

Swing strategy with target price 210.

Regards,

JNS

~We do our best and GOD will do the rest~

SMSM

SMSM break downtrend line with significant volume today, stochastic shows buy signal.

Enter > 830 with target price 900-940 (cancel buy, if fall below 830).

Regards,

JNS

~We do our best and GOD will do the rest~

SMGR

SMGR break downtrend line but has not break resistance 8950. Volume increasing, Stochastic crossing centerline.

Strategy break peak:

Enter when price break 8950, with target price 9250-9500.

Regards,

JNS

~We do our best and GOD will do the rest~

ANTM - break teeth of alligator

ANTM MA 5 GC MA 20. ANTM has break teeth 1950, close 1970. Break Fractal = 2050. S1 = 1830. Volume is not too high.

Regards,

JNS

~We do our best and GOD will do the rest~

JCI - downtrending volume

We can see that there is negative divergence between price and volume. Is it because of world cup? Or, many investors have less appetite to invest more money in stocks since the value is way too high? For traders, we still can play since the momentum is still exist. Just be careful, make a trading plan and follow it!!!

Regards,

JNS

~We do our best and GOD will do the rest~

LSIP - dividend effect?

LSIP will distribute dividend cum date 17 Jun, amounting to Rp209/share. Buy Fractal 8750, initial buy after break 8361 (last close 8400), volume increasing. S1 = 7900 S2 = 7300. R1 = 8750 R2 = 9200.

Regards,

JNS

~We do our best and GOD will do the rest~

NIKL - watch out!!!

NIKL has 6 green body in a row, potential pullback to its teeth. If we put fibo projection 305 is 100% of wave 3, if can't move upward, will pullback to 280-290. In the picture, Buy Fractal is 305. That's the map. MAKE YOUR TRADING PLAN!!!

Regards,

JNS

~We do our best and GOD will do the rest~

ELSA - new bull?

Buy Fractal = 460, initial buy after break teeth = 435. Volume increase, although not very high.

S1 = 420, S2 = 390.

Regards,

JNS

~We do our best and GOD will do the rest~

ADHI - high dividend yield

ADHI will distribute cash dividend of Rp28,25/share, means quite high dividend yield after CPIN. MA5 almost cross MA20. S1 = 460, R1 = 520.

Regards,

JNS

~We do our best and GOD will do the rest~

INCO - follow up confirmation

As we seen on the chart, the confirmation occurred that INCO will go north.

S1 = 3650

R1 = 4000, R2 = 4300

Regards,

JNS

~We do our best and GOD will do the rest~

INCO - north or south?

INCO's price is following the nickel's market price which is downtrend also, but in the chart we can see the pattern of wedges and flag, will it go north? we'll see the confirmation tomorrow. Nice chart, isn't it? But, could it make profit?

Regards,

JNS

~We do our best and GOD will do the rest~

JCI's War Map

JKSE right now is in the position of making right shoulder for inverted H&S, right or not? we'll see. DOW at this time +0.69%, so I think tomorrow we'll see positive JCI if there is no any negative sentiment in our regional market.

Regards,

JNS

~We do our best and GOD will do the rest~

CPIN - 2700, BOW

Risk < Reward, from this chart we can see that the MFI has upside potential with R1 2875 and R2 3000, which its support around 2575-2600. If pullback, we can enter position near 2600 (BOW).

Regards,

JNS

~We do our best and GOD will do the rest~

JCI - red alert!!!

JCI has broke its support (MA79) and going to test fibo 50%. Now, we have to worry because the effect of crisis in European union is getting bigger and bigger. As per now, 11:42 PM WIB, DOW falls 1,04% because of this: "NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks fell on Wednesday as Germany's decision to ban naked short-selling of certain financial instruments fueled investor worries about exposure to riskier assets and about the global economy."

I think, we better stay away from the market for a while until the European crisis is getting better, if we cannot say it's over. Or, you can short your own stocks and cover it back at the lower prices...

Regards,

JNS

~We do our best and GOD will do the rest~

JCI - 180510

JCI can't break its resistance around 2,840, but close slightly lower that level. As per now, Crude Oil price is still consolidating and a bit increasing.

U.S. stocks declined in choppy trading on Tuesday as the euro's weakness raised concerns about the impact on technology companies' sales and worries over Europe's debt problems resumed. Let's see the closing DOW and regional's index tomorrow morning.

Note:

We are trading in a very fluctuated market, driven by sentiment. We don't know what the market direction is. So, please do your trading plan and rules strictly. We are not trading by hope, but trading by rules.

Regards,

JNS

~We do our best and GOD will do the rest~

BBRI - 180510

BBRI has its resistance at 8,550, if BBRI could break that level, we maintain our target to 9,050 (peak). Trailing stop set to 8,300 - 8,350. If fall below that level, short and re-enter around 8,100.

Regards,

JNS

~We do our best and GOD will do the rest~

WIKA - 180510

WIKA has upside potential up to 435 (peak) with close Stop Loss area, around 360-365 (through). Speculative buy. Risk < Reward.

Regards,

JNS

~We do our best and GOD will do the rest~

live update JKSE midday 180510

Look at it, the market still don't know where to go, the market going mix. It trying to break 2832 twice, but fail. Watch out session II.

Regards,

JNS

~We do our best and GOD will do the rest~

TLKM - 170510

TLKM in super bearish mode. Strong support at 7,500, 3rd times tested, but cannot break. Resistances are lie upon 7,850 - 8,050 - 8,400. If those resistances can be break, further we will see 8,950 or 9,850 as target potential upside of TLKM.

Regards,

JNS

~We do our best and GOD will do the rest~

ELSA - 170510

ELSA, from the 1st chart, we saw a downtrend which break its golden ratio and will reach its fibo 78.6% at 380. But, in the other hand, from 2nd chart, the pattern shows bullish bat, it means the correction has ended and will start its new uptrend. My suggestion is wait until the bearish reversal candle to enter to this stock. Fast upside will followed by fast downside.

Regards,

JNS

~We do our best and GOD will do the rest~

ENRG - 170510

Super duper bearish stock. Unfortunately, it has to break downtrend line (at least break 152) to confirm its bullishness. 1st support is 141, next is 138. Target if break 152, are 167 - 172 - 187. Watch it closely!!!

Regards,

JNS

~We do our best and GOD will do the rest~

ELTY - 170510

ELTY sideways with descending triangle pattern, will it break its upper or lower pattern? Watch it carefully. If break 235-240 with volume, it would be confirmed bullish. But if break 210-215, we may see ELTY below 200, with downside target to 180. Let's have a tight trading plan, if you have this kind of stock.

Regards,

JNS

~We do our best and GOD will do the rest~

BBRI - 170510

From my point of view, BBRI is in the position near its support at 8,300 with potential upside to 9,050 if 8,550 can be break with volume. The next support is 8,100.

I think BBRI have several good news, besides dividend distribution which 30% from its 2009 net income, BBRI will acquired Bank AGRO, which will strengthen its performances in micro banking.

Regards,

JNS

~We do our best and GOD will do the rest~

ASII - 170510

From the chart above, ASII has potential upside to close its gap at 45,500. 1st support is 41,600 and next is 39,650. 1st resistance is 43,100 and next is 43,400. Hammer candle means reversal, we will wait for next candle for confirmation. FYI, ASII will distribute dividend of Rp830/share.

Regards,

JNS

~We do our best and GOD will do the rest~

AKRA - 170510

AKRA still have its own potential upside, from the fibo projection, it will reach 1,190 as its target (161,8%). FYI, AKRA will distribute dividends amounting to Rp25/share. Recording date at May 31, 2010. Technical support is 960, next is 920. First resistance is 1,050.

Regards,

JNS

~We do our best and GOD will do the rest~

JCI - 170510

From my point of view, the negative market sentiment drove JCI to test its support in fibo 38,2% and formed a hammer since at the middle of session II, european indexes shows a positive upsides. In this case, we can assure that no fundamental issues in our JCI, the only thing is fear of euro zone economy, reflected by weakness of EUR compared to USD, which reached below 1.2300.

We have 2 assumptions right now: still bullish or start to bearish??? Some people choose to do a short term trading, but the others choose to clear all position during pullback. Which one will you do? Options and all risk is in your own hand. Please make and stick to your own trading plan.

Bullish assumption:

JCI will go north up to 3,000 again, because of dividend distribution from some companies, such as ASII, AKRA, BBRI, BMRI, etc...

Bearish assumption:

I will be very worry if JCI break down its EMA (2,749.77), but we have its another support around its golden ratio 61,8% (2,650-2,668.40). If break again, next, we will see 2550-2575 and 2400 as its end terminal.

Regards,JNS~We do our best and GOD will do the rest~

How Low Can U Go?

Today, January 22th 2010, ^JKSE drop 1.06% from a day before. It caused by the decreasing US market and also regional Asian market. In addition, by data, foreign investor (Hot Money) has been outflow from our market (especially LQ45).

So, what are we going to do?

Please remember that first of all when we are going to make an analysis for our trading plan, we have to take a look for macroeconomy and the impact for our market. We also have to give concern to what happen in US market and regional market. Then take a look for each stock analysis, could it be affected by those issue or not.

Now, based on recent condition, I suggest you to keep an eye of your portfolio in stock. Given the situation of our unsure politics, switch to the less risky assets (adjust your risk based on your risk profile).

But, if there is action there will be reaction right, after the drop today, is it going to be technical rebound tomorrow? We'll see, anyway, follow your trading plan!!!

From the ^JKSE chart below, what does it means? Please share your thoughts. Trade what you see, not what you think!!!

Now, I'll gonna share you some stocks' charts, as follow:

ADRO: done retrace 38,2%, will it going up or down? MFI shows it will rebound.

PGAS: out of its trend channel, but the trend has not broken yet.

TLKM: could it be a morning star? see MFI, rebound?

MEDC: potensial enter wave 3 uptrend after ended its 3 waves downtrend.

ELTY: wait for more discounts. W%R still overbought.

CMIIW.

DISCLAIMER ON.

Regards,
JNS

~We do our best and GOD will do the rest~