TLKM critical level is 8500 to confirm its bullishness. Let's see some more days to see the trend.JNS
~We do our best and GOD will do the rest~
Thursday, 23 September 2010
TLKM
TLKM critical level is 8500 to confirm its bullishness. Let's see some more days to see the trend.
MEDC
MEDC has good signals, MACD golden cross and almost cross center-line, stochastic is uptrend and ready to cross center-line also. I think it will easily break 3150 and also downtrend line to reach its short-term target at 3450. CL if break uptrend line or if fall below 3025.JNS
~We do our best and GOD will do the rest~
TRUB - as requested
(daily chart)
(weekly chart)
In weekly chart, we can see TRUB has not yet break the downtrend line. But, there is a buy signal at the last 2 candle and the stochastic is oversold.
In daily chart, TRUB has break short term downtrend line at the last 5 candle, but still can't break resistance level at 88. If it can break-up 88, it's possible TRUB to break long term downtrend line. Stochastic is overbought. I think, TRUB is going down to area 71-79. Best entry is near 71, but CL if break 65.
Regards,
JNS
~We do our best and GOD will do the rest~
ASRI
ASRI weekly form a symetrical triangle, hope it would not break down as the confirmation.
JNS
~We do our best and GOD will do the rest~
Wednesday, 22 September 2010
ELSA
ELSA after break its downtrend line and strong resistance (320 and 335), it runaway very fast to its next resistance 370-390. Today's candle, many traders take profit and push the price to 350. My point of view, we can accumulate when the price retrace to 320-335, with cut loss level if break and close below 320. Target price would be 460.JNS
~We do our best and GOD will do the rest~
BTEK
BTEK is make pennant but already break-down with support 500-530. MACD and stochastic is still downtrend. The scenario are as follow:
1. Spec buy around 500-530, but if fall below 500, CUT LOSS!!
2. If break and close above 610, we can buy with target 700, and if break again, sky is the limit.
I'll update the chart again for the next movement.
Regards,
JNS
~We do our best and GOD will do the rest~
DOID
DOID is very interesting, if break 900 as its important level, the potential upside is very wide with target 1060-1090. Today's candle has break but fail to close above 900. So, we have to wait until candle confirm closed above 900. Just wait and see.JNS
~We do our best and GOD will do the rest~
KARK
KARK seems trying to make the handle of "CUP & HANDLE" pattern, but in my opinion, it should break 99 (strong resistance). BUY 1 tick above at 100, and ride it until the 108-112 (next resistance. Let's see if it could happen or not. I'll update later if the scenario handle is happen.Regards,
JNS
~We do our best and GOD will do the rest~
MEDC
MACD MEDC is almost golden cross, Stochastic uptrend, but it can't close above its strong resistance at 3150, although high today reached 3225. Why? Most of all stocks in JKSE fall around 3:00 pm, because of negative sentiment from Europe which opened minus almost 1%. So, let's see tomorrow, can MEDC break 3150 and reach its near target at 3450.JNS
~We do our best and GOD will do the rest~
ITMG
ITMG will pay interim dividen Rp795,-/share, cum date at 28 Sept 2010. Yesterday's candle break-up triangle, followed by today's candle break resistance gap at 39,100. Near potential target 40,450.JNS
~We do our best and GOD will do the rest~
ASRI
ASRI looks trying to reach 205-210 again, MACD cross centreline and stochastic in overbought area, support I = 195, support II = 191. Regards,
JNS
~We do our best and GOD will do the rest~
Wednesday, 15 September 2010
INCO
Here are the map for INCO, it has gap at 4350-4400 and at 4775-4825. Volume today is very high. Enter if break 4525 or when pullback to close the gap, with first target 4825 and next target 5200. CL if close below 4300.Regards,
JNS
~We do our best and GOD will do the rest~
AKRA
AKRA moved as expected to the first target. We'll see if it will retrace or go forward to next target.JNS
~We do our best and GOD will do the rest~
Tuesday, 14 September 2010
LSIP
LSIP break up pennant, with target 9950 - 10200. CL if close below 9600.JNS
~We do our best and GOD will do the rest~
AKRA
AKRA has break downtrend line and form uptrend channel, plus MACD uptick trying to cross signal, stochastic cross center line.
BUY with stop-loss = 1270 and 1st target = 1400, next target = 1550.
JNS
~We do our best and GOD will do the rest~
Friday, 3 September 2010
BNPP Spotlight on Indonesia - 03 September 2010
Macro and Other News
Bank Indonesia — to announce new ruling on reserve requirement.
Bank Indonesia will have their monthly meeting today in which they will decide on:
1. Benchmark BI rate, which is expected to remain unchanged at 6.5%.
2. New ruling on primary reserve requirement on Rupiah deposits. Currently the primary rr is set at 5% that is placed in Bank Indonesia, earning small interest. In addition there is 2.5% secondary reserve requirement, which can be placed in government papers or SBI, earning around 6.5% currently.
The new ruling will set the primary rr based on the bank's LDR and is aimed to ask banks to be more active in lending. The central bank has been indicating that LDR of 78-102% will be the benchmark in which banks with LDR of <78%>102% LDR.
The industry LDR is now at 77% but larger banks tend to have lower LDR, not because of their slow loan growth but because of deposits keep coming to them such as in BCA and Mandiri.
A similar ruling was implemented during 2005 until late 2008 when rr was calculated based on a bank's total deposits and LDR level. Although there is some impact on declining interest income for banks with low LDR, we believe this will not be that significant (roughly 1% earning reduction only. We thus maintain our positive view on the banks with top picks on BBNI IJ (TP IDR3,800) and Bank Danamon (TP IDR6,300).
Corporate-related
§ Antimonopoly Commission Objects to Unilever Takeover of Sara Lee Body Care (Jakarta Globe) KPPU said it had rejected Unilever Indonesia’s proposed acquisition of Sara Lee Body Care Indonesia during an initial assessment after determining that it would lead to market domination in two product categories (market share of >50% in men’s hair cream and deodorant). However, KPPU spokesperson said this did not mean the KPPU would necessarily reject the merger, because a more thorough study will be conducted before the final verdict. Franky, corporate secretary for Unilever Indonesia, denied that the merged company would capture >50% of the market for men’s hair cream and deodorant, and said he was confident the merger would be approved during the second assessment.
§ Garuda Taps UBS, Citigroup as IPO Underwriters (Wall Street Journal) Airline company PT Garuda Indonesia has appointed UBS and Citigroup as int’l underwriters for its IPO, scheduled for later this year, a company executive said Thursday. "We have appointed both of them. We aim to raise US$300m from the public offering," President Director Emirsyah Satar said. Mr. Satar said Garuda plans to showcase its offering internationally in Nov. Garuda has previously appointed Bahana Securities, Danareksa Sekuritas and Mandiri Sekuritas to act as local underwriters.
§ Harum Energy targets to tap Rp4t from IPO (Investor Daily) Harum Energy targets to tap Rp3.25-4.09t from IPO. The company will sell 24.07% (650k shr) of its stake at Rp5,000-6,300/shr, translating into the expected PER of 7-9x in 2011, Ciptadana director said.
§ Adaro Energy to acquire Bhakti Energi (Investor Daily) Adaro plans to acquire Bhakti Energi, owned by one of Adaro’s founder TP Rachmat. There are no details yet on the value of acquisition but it’s been reported Adaro will use its internal cash to finance its planned acquisition. Currently Bhakti Energi owns four coal mines in East Kalimantan with total reserve of 5.6b metric. The company targets to produce about 700k tonnes of coal this year.
§ Thai Coal Giant Banpu Says It’s Still Committed to ITM Despite Stake Sale (Jakarta Globe) Banpu said it was still committed to a long-term investment in Indonesian unit Indo Tambangraya Megah after selling an 8.7% stake for US$395m. A subsidiary, Banpu Minerals, sold the stake to institutional investors through a market placement on Thursday. The transaction was expected to be completed on Tuesday. 10% of the shares were offered to Indonesian investors while the rest went to int’l investors, according to a source from an Indonesian brokerage with direct knowledge of the deal.
§ Fast-Food Giant Cuts Ties With Sinar Mas (Jakarta Globe) US fast food giant Burger King said that it would no longer buy palm oil from Sinar Mas or its subsidiaries, after Greenpeace’s successful campaign against the Indonesian group’s land-clearing practices. Burger King said a recent independent audit of Sinar Mas palm oil unit Smart’s land-clearing practices — commissioned by Sinar Mas in response to the Greenpeace allegations — revealed activities “inconsistent with our corporate responsibility commitments”.
§ Alcatel-Lucent to help Telkom cope with traffic (Jakarta Globe) Alcatel-Lucent said it had been contracted to upgrade Telkom’s network backbone to accommodate increasing traffic and simplify its system while reducing costs. Alcatel said the project would also address operational and power consumption challenges resulting from traffic growth. Telkom said its number of fixed broadband subscribers expanded by 79%y-y in the 1Q, while mobile broadband users soared 607%.
§ GM Mulls Indonesian Plant (Jakarta Globe) General Motors, the largest US automaker, may spend US$150m to restart a plant in Indonesia that has been closed for about five years, said Tim Lee, the company’s president for int’l operations. A decision on whether to reopen the factory, which could initially produce 50k vehicles a year, will be made within 90 days, Lee said on Thursday during a press briefing in Bangkok. The plant would make multipurpose vehicles, he said.
Indonesia Research Team:
- Elvira Tjandrawinata 62-21-2358 4948 elvira.tjandrawinata@asia.bnpparibas.com
Automotive/Mining non Coal/Consumers/ Heavy Equipment
- Tjandra Lienandjaja 62-21-2358 4935 tjandra.lienandjaja@asia.bnpparibas.com
Financials/ Property
- Helmy Kristanto 62-21-2358 4939 helmy.kristanto@asia.bnpparibas.com
Plantation/ Cement/Oil & Gas/ Pharmaceuticals
- FOONG Choong Chen 603 2050 9938 choongchen.foong@asia.bnpparibas.com
Telecommunication
Bank Indonesia — to announce new ruling on reserve requirement.
Bank Indonesia will have their monthly meeting today in which they will decide on:
1. Benchmark BI rate, which is expected to remain unchanged at 6.5%.
2. New ruling on primary reserve requirement on Rupiah deposits. Currently the primary rr is set at 5% that is placed in Bank Indonesia, earning small interest. In addition there is 2.5% secondary reserve requirement, which can be placed in government papers or SBI, earning around 6.5% currently.
The new ruling will set the primary rr based on the bank's LDR and is aimed to ask banks to be more active in lending. The central bank has been indicating that LDR of 78-102% will be the benchmark in which banks with LDR of <78%>102% LDR.
The industry LDR is now at 77% but larger banks tend to have lower LDR, not because of their slow loan growth but because of deposits keep coming to them such as in BCA and Mandiri.
A similar ruling was implemented during 2005 until late 2008 when rr was calculated based on a bank's total deposits and LDR level. Although there is some impact on declining interest income for banks with low LDR, we believe this will not be that significant (roughly 1% earning reduction only. We thus maintain our positive view on the banks with top picks on BBNI IJ (TP IDR3,800) and Bank Danamon (TP IDR6,300).
Corporate-related
§ Antimonopoly Commission Objects to Unilever Takeover of Sara Lee Body Care (Jakarta Globe) KPPU said it had rejected Unilever Indonesia’s proposed acquisition of Sara Lee Body Care Indonesia during an initial assessment after determining that it would lead to market domination in two product categories (market share of >50% in men’s hair cream and deodorant). However, KPPU spokesperson said this did not mean the KPPU would necessarily reject the merger, because a more thorough study will be conducted before the final verdict. Franky, corporate secretary for Unilever Indonesia, denied that the merged company would capture >50% of the market for men’s hair cream and deodorant, and said he was confident the merger would be approved during the second assessment.
§ Garuda Taps UBS, Citigroup as IPO Underwriters (Wall Street Journal) Airline company PT Garuda Indonesia has appointed UBS and Citigroup as int’l underwriters for its IPO, scheduled for later this year, a company executive said Thursday. "We have appointed both of them. We aim to raise US$300m from the public offering," President Director Emirsyah Satar said. Mr. Satar said Garuda plans to showcase its offering internationally in Nov. Garuda has previously appointed Bahana Securities, Danareksa Sekuritas and Mandiri Sekuritas to act as local underwriters.
§ Harum Energy targets to tap Rp4t from IPO (Investor Daily) Harum Energy targets to tap Rp3.25-4.09t from IPO. The company will sell 24.07% (650k shr) of its stake at Rp5,000-6,300/shr, translating into the expected PER of 7-9x in 2011, Ciptadana director said.
§ Adaro Energy to acquire Bhakti Energi (Investor Daily) Adaro plans to acquire Bhakti Energi, owned by one of Adaro’s founder TP Rachmat. There are no details yet on the value of acquisition but it’s been reported Adaro will use its internal cash to finance its planned acquisition. Currently Bhakti Energi owns four coal mines in East Kalimantan with total reserve of 5.6b metric. The company targets to produce about 700k tonnes of coal this year.
§ Thai Coal Giant Banpu Says It’s Still Committed to ITM Despite Stake Sale (Jakarta Globe) Banpu said it was still committed to a long-term investment in Indonesian unit Indo Tambangraya Megah after selling an 8.7% stake for US$395m. A subsidiary, Banpu Minerals, sold the stake to institutional investors through a market placement on Thursday. The transaction was expected to be completed on Tuesday. 10% of the shares were offered to Indonesian investors while the rest went to int’l investors, according to a source from an Indonesian brokerage with direct knowledge of the deal.
§ Fast-Food Giant Cuts Ties With Sinar Mas (Jakarta Globe) US fast food giant Burger King said that it would no longer buy palm oil from Sinar Mas or its subsidiaries, after Greenpeace’s successful campaign against the Indonesian group’s land-clearing practices. Burger King said a recent independent audit of Sinar Mas palm oil unit Smart’s land-clearing practices — commissioned by Sinar Mas in response to the Greenpeace allegations — revealed activities “inconsistent with our corporate responsibility commitments”.
§ Alcatel-Lucent to help Telkom cope with traffic (Jakarta Globe) Alcatel-Lucent said it had been contracted to upgrade Telkom’s network backbone to accommodate increasing traffic and simplify its system while reducing costs. Alcatel said the project would also address operational and power consumption challenges resulting from traffic growth. Telkom said its number of fixed broadband subscribers expanded by 79%y-y in the 1Q, while mobile broadband users soared 607%.
§ GM Mulls Indonesian Plant (Jakarta Globe) General Motors, the largest US automaker, may spend US$150m to restart a plant in Indonesia that has been closed for about five years, said Tim Lee, the company’s president for int’l operations. A decision on whether to reopen the factory, which could initially produce 50k vehicles a year, will be made within 90 days, Lee said on Thursday during a press briefing in Bangkok. The plant would make multipurpose vehicles, he said.
Indonesia Research Team:
- Elvira Tjandrawinata 62-21-2358 4948 elvira.tjandrawinata@asia.bnpparibas.com
Automotive/Mining non Coal/Consumers/ Heavy Equipment
- Tjandra Lienandjaja 62-21-2358 4935 tjandra.lienandjaja@asia.bnpparibas.com
Financials/ Property
- Helmy Kristanto 62-21-2358 4939 helmy.kristanto@asia.bnpparibas.com
Plantation/ Cement/Oil & Gas/ Pharmaceuticals
- FOONG Choong Chen 603 2050 9938 choongchen.foong@asia.bnpparibas.com
Telecommunication
Thursday, 2 September 2010
SMSM
SMSM break downtrend line with significant volume today, stochastic shows buy signal.Enter > 830 with target price 900-940 (cancel buy, if fall below 830).
Regards,
JNS
~We do our best and GOD will do the rest~
SMGR
SMGR break downtrend line but has not break resistance 8950. Volume increasing, Stochastic crossing centerline.
Strategy break peak:
Enter when price break 8950, with target price 9250-9500.
JNS
~We do our best and GOD will do the rest~
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